Bosnian Serbs to secede from Sarajevo
The Bosnian Serbs push for secession : the Republika Srpska was the eighth state born from the ashes of the former Yugoslavia and upset the precarious geography '95 enshrined in the Dayton Agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina split in two and divided between 'Serb entity of Banja Luka and the Muslim-Croat with the capital Sarajevo . This is confirmed by Matthew Parish, active for years in the Serbian republic of Bosnia, in the legal department of the OHR, the European representation. The disruptive process in Bosnia is inevitable. The only unknown factor: the type of reaction that the international community might have.
"The deadlock is located in Bosnia (and the dangerous turn of events could be taken) depends first and foremost the role of bankruptcy 
international bodies, "writes Nicholas Sessa on" PeaceReporter "in the aftermath of the strategic mid-November, culminating in yet another stalemate.
Earlier this year recalls Sessa, Miroslav Lajcak left his office in Sarajevo OHR to Valentin Inzko with a grim epitaph: "The international institutions in Bosnia as a dead horse.
And I do not intend to continue doing the jockey for this horse. "
The OHR is a creature of Dayton and 14 years administering Bosnia as a protectorate from reaching powers: it can remove members of the government to impose and revoke laws, freeze the assets of the parties.
Prerogatives which cause frustration in the Bosnian Serbs, who see the long arm nell'Ohr anti-Serb West.
"The international community, in fact, pushes for 
constitutional changes that favor the construction of a strong central state, where everything is decided in Sarajevo , "added Sessa.
For Milorad Dodik, prime minister of Republika Srpska, the question arises: "If you want a command to Bosnia where Muslims , let them, but will be a Bosnia without us. " Against the ease of Dodik, the OHR can not do much. Until 2006, says " PeaceReporter "government men of the mini-republic of Serbia were controlled using the" threat "of the Hague tribunal: it was not hard to find tracks in their biographies of involvement in the war in Bosnia. By Dodik, however, is not possible: the new Bosnian Serb prime minister is unassailable, as well as financially supported by Moscow.
Sure to stop the Bosnian Serb separatism, the Ohr Dodik could remove him from office. Move inadvisable for two reasons: Dodik is the lesser evil, and warned however that if threatened, fifty thousand Serbs mark on Sarajevo siege to the headquarters of European international.
If nothing else, continues in his analysis Nicola Sessa, now in Bosnia the military option seems distant armies demobilized, no heavy weapons.
"The most likely scenario - adds sex - and that any secession 
ports diplomatic isolation Republika Srpska, since even Belgrade and Moscow does not endorse the passage of Banja Luka. "
The biggest obstacle to the creation of an independent state, however, comes from the territorial structure of the Rs and the District of Brcko, which would be a cap, a discontinuity territorial able to isolate the western part of Eastern Europe. A Serbian self-determination in Bosnia and Croatia would also impact the extent that states in muted, its right to territorial autonomy and a principle of equality in the Muslim majority in the Bosnian Federation.
The events require that the international bodies that govern the growth process in Bosnia and a concrete agenda for stronger that evaluates their credibility, warns " PeaceReporter . But the most difficult task is to create a sealed chamber between the representatives of government and the people to avoid ethnic tensions, strong men of politics, entering the delicate social fabric that still bears the wounds of the last great conflict d ' Europe (info: www.peacereporter.net ).
